Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · Torreense vs Sunderland
Likeliest: Sunderland win · 72%
Likely score: 0–1
A 72% away win. The market says 68%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Torreense10%14%−4
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Sunderland72%68%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 90% | 86% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 12% | 17% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Torreense
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Tondela (A)0-1
- Sep 17 · at Lillestrøm SK (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Leixões SC (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Benfica B U21 (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Vizela (H)0-3
Sunderland
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at Manchester City (A)3-5
- Sep 16 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Arsenal (H)0-2
- Sep 8 · v Hull City (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Torreense | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.