Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Sep 27 · 13:00 · Tottenham FC vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Tottenham FC win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham FC58%56%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Aston Villa20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham FC
WinDrawWin
- Sep 20 · at Crystal Palace (A)7-0
- Sep 13 · at Liverpool FC (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v West Ham United (H)3-1
Aston Villa
DrawLossDraw
- Sep 20 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Manchester City (H)1-4
- Sep 5 · at Chelsea FC (A)1-1