Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Oct 4 · 13:00 · Tottenham FC vs London City Lionesses
Likeliest: London City Lionesses win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham FC33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+1
OursMarket
London City Lionesses38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham FC
WinDrawWinWin
- Sep 27 · v Aston Villa (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · at Crystal Palace (A)7-0
- Sep 13 · at Liverpool FC (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v West Ham United (H)3-1
London City Lionesses
WinLossWinWin
- Sep 26 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Charlton Athletic WFC (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · at West Ham United (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v Manchester United (H)2-1