Premier League (England) · Sun, Feb 22 · 16:30 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 51%
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur26%15%+11
OursMarket
Draw23%23%−1
OursMarket
Arsenal51%61%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 53% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 51% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 39% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 85% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 20% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Feb 10 · v Newcastle United (H)1-2
- Feb 7 · at Manchester United (A)0-2
- Feb 1 · v Manchester City (H)2-2
- Jan 28 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · at Burnley (A)2-2
Arsenal
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Feb 18 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)2-2
- Feb 15 · v Wigan Athletic (H)4-0
- Feb 12 · at Brentford (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Sunderland (H)3-0
- Feb 3 · v Chelsea (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 7-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.