FA Cup (England) · Sat, Jan 10 · 17:45 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 42%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Aston Villa42%36%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 52% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 64% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 50% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Jan 7 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-3
- Jan 4 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
- Jan 1 · at Brentford (A)0-0
- Dec 28 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-0
- Dec 20 · v Liverpool (H)1-2
Aston Villa
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Jan 7 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
- Jan 3 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-1
- Dec 30 · at Arsenal (A)1-4
- Dec 27 · at Chelsea (A)2-1
- Dec 21 · v Manchester United (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.