Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 11:30 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Tottenham Hotspur win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Aston Villa24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 15 · at Liverpool (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Everton (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Newcastle United (H)0-2
- Aug 26 · v Charlton Athletic (H)5-1
Aston Villa
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 16 · at Coventry City (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · at Club Brugge KV (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Hull City (A)0-0
- Aug 31 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.