Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 6 · 15:00 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Brentford
Likeliest: Tottenham Hotspur win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 40%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur48%40%+8
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Brentford25%32%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 60% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 56% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Dec 2 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Nov 29 · v Fulham (H)1-2
- Nov 26 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)3-5
- Nov 23 · at Arsenal (A)1-4
- Nov 8 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
Brentford
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Dec 3 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
- Nov 29 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Nov 22 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-2
- Nov 9 · v Newcastle United (H)3-1
- Nov 1 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.