Premier League (England) · Sat, Apr 18 · 16:30 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur36%33%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion41%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 67% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 45% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Apr 12 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Mar 22 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-3
- Mar 18 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-2
- Mar 15 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- Mar 10 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-5
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinLossWinWinWin
- Apr 11 · at Burnley (A)2-0
- Mar 21 · v Liverpool (H)2-1
- Mar 14 · at Sunderland (A)1-0
- Mar 4 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- Mar 1 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.