EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Aug 26 · 18:45 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Charlton Athletic
Likeliest: Tottenham Hotspur win · 46%
A 28% away win. The market says 9%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur46%75%−29
OursMarket
Draw26%16%+10
OursMarket
Charlton Athletic28%9%+19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 64% | −22 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 91% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 25% | +29 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 84% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 89% | −27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Aug 22 · at Brentford (A)0-3
- May 24 · v Everton (H)1-0
- May 19 · at Chelsea (A)1-2
- May 11 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Aston Villa (A)2-1
Charlton Athletic
WinLossWinWinWin
- Aug 22 · at West Ham United (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · v Derby County (H)2-1
- Aug 8 · at Cheltenham Town (A)3-1
- May 2 · at Swansea City (A)1-3
- Apr 25 · v Hull City (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.