Premier League (England) · Mon, Oct 19 · 19:00 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City
Likeliest: Tottenham Hotspur win · 66%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur66%64%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%0
OursMarket
Coventry City13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 36% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Manchester United (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Aston Villa (H)2-3
- Sep 15 · at Liverpool (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Everton (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
Coventry City
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 12 · v Newcastle United (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Aston Villa (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-5
- Sep 5 · at Manchester City (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.