Premier League (England) · Thu, Mar 5 · 20:00 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 42%
A 42% away win. The market says 31%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur35%40%−5
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−6
OursMarket
Crystal Palace42%31%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 52% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 58% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 69% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 60% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 56% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Mar 1 · at Fulham (A)1-2
- Feb 22 · v Arsenal (H)1-4
- Feb 10 · v Newcastle United (H)1-2
- Feb 7 · at Manchester United (A)0-2
- Feb 1 · v Manchester City (H)2-2
Crystal Palace
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Mar 1 · at Manchester United (A)1-2
- Feb 26 · v Zrinjski (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-0
- Feb 19 · at Zrinjski (A)1-1
- Feb 11 · v Burnley (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Tottenham Hotspur form·Crystal Palace form·Head-to-head record