Premier League (England) · Sun, May 24 · 15:00 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton
Likeliest: Tottenham Hotspur win · 48%
A 29% away win. The market says 25%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur48%49%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Everton29%25%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 67% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- May 19 · at Chelsea (A)1-2
- May 11 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Aston Villa (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-2
Everton
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- May 17 · v Sunderland (H)1-3
- May 10 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-2
- May 4 · v Manchester City (H)3-3
- Apr 25 · at West Ham United (A)1-2
- Apr 19 · v Liverpool (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.