Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 16:30 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton
Likeliest: Tottenham Hotspur win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Everton26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 5 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Newcastle United (H)0-2
- Aug 26 · v Charlton Athletic (H)5-1
- Aug 22 · at Brentford (A)0-3
- May 24 · v Everton (H)1-0
Everton
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 6 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Bournemouth (A)1-1
- Aug 26 · at Preston North End (A)4-0
- Aug 22 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-0
- May 24 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.