Premier League (England) · Sat, Nov 29 · 20:00 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Fulham
Likeliest: Tottenham Hotspur win · 74%
A tight one: we make it 74% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur74%42%+31
OursMarket
Draw16%29%−13
OursMarket
Fulham11%29%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 49% | +22 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 71% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 58% | −31 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 71% | +13 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 59% | +28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Nov 26 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)3-5
- Nov 23 · at Arsenal (A)1-4
- Nov 8 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
- Nov 4 · v FC København (H)4-0
- Nov 1 · v Chelsea (H)0-1
Fulham
LossLossWinLossWin
- Nov 22 · v Sunderland (H)1-0
- Nov 8 · at Everton (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- Oct 25 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Oct 18 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.