Premier League (England) · Mon, May 11 · 19:00 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Tottenham Hotspur win · 42%
We make it 72% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur42%53%−11
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Leeds United34%23%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 55% | +17 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 77% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 47% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 70% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
LossLossDrawWinWin
- May 3 · at Aston Villa (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-2
- Apr 12 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Mar 22 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-3
Leeds United
WinWinDrawLossWin
- May 1 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Apr 26 · at Chelsea (A)0-1
- Apr 22 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-2
- Apr 18 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- Apr 13 · at Manchester United (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 2-7-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.