Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 20 · 17:30 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Tottenham Hotspur win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 28%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur39%28%+11
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Liverpool36%46%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 54% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 72% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 38% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Dec 14 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-3
- Dec 9 · v Slavia Praha (H)3-0
- Dec 6 · v Brentford (H)2-0
- Dec 2 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Nov 29 · v Fulham (H)1-2
Liverpool
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Dec 13 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-0
- Dec 9 · at Inter (A)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Leeds United (A)3-3
- Dec 3 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · at West Ham United (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.