Premier League (England) · Sun, Feb 1 · 16:30 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 21%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur38%21%+16
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Manchester City38%55%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 45% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 79% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 28% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Jan 28 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- Jan 20 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-0
- Jan 17 · v West Ham United (H)1-2
- Jan 10 · v Aston Villa (H)1-2
Manchester City
WinLossLossWinWin
- Jan 28 · v Galatasaray (H)2-0
- Jan 24 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-0
- Jan 20 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)1-3
- Jan 17 · at Manchester United (A)0-2
- Jan 13 · at Newcastle United (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Tottenham Hotspur form·Manchester City form·Head-to-head record