Premier League (England) · Tue, Feb 10 · 19:30 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Tottenham Hotspur win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 30%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur46%30%+16
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Newcastle United29%43%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 55% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 57% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 70% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 41% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Feb 7 · at Manchester United (A)0-2
- Feb 1 · v Manchester City (H)2-2
- Jan 28 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- Jan 20 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-0
Newcastle United
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Feb 7 · v Brentford (H)2-3
- Feb 4 · at Manchester City (A)1-3
- Jan 31 · at Liverpool (A)1-4
- Jan 28 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v Aston Villa (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Tottenham Hotspur form·Newcastle United form·Head-to-head record