Premier League (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 16:30 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Tottenham Hotspur win · 46%
We make it 71% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur46%42%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Newcastle United30%33%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 57% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 58% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 56% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Aug 26 · v Charlton Athletic (H)5-1
- Aug 22 · at Brentford (A)0-3
- May 24 · v Everton (H)1-0
- May 19 · at Chelsea (A)1-2
- May 11 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
Newcastle United
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Aug 26 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-2
- Aug 23 · v Liverpool (H)2-2
- May 24 · at Fulham (A)0-2
- May 17 · v West Ham United (H)3-1
- May 10 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Tottenham Hotspur form·Newcastle United form·Head-to-head record