Premier League (England) · Sun, Mar 22 · 14:15 · Tottenham Hotspur vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Tottenham Hotspur win · 52%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tottenham Hotspur52%40%+12
OursMarket
Draw21%29%−8
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest27%31%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 47% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 53% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 69% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 60% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 71% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 56% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tottenham Hotspur
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Mar 18 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-2
- Mar 15 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- Mar 10 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-5
- Mar 5 · v Crystal Palace (H)1-3
- Mar 1 · at Fulham (A)1-2
Nottingham Forest
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Mar 19 · at FC Midtjylland (A)2-1
- Mar 15 · v Fulham (H)0-0
- Mar 12 · v FC Midtjylland (H)0-1
- Mar 4 · at Manchester City (A)2-2
- Mar 1 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Tottenham Hotspur | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Tottenham Hotspur form·Nottingham Forest form·Head-to-head record