Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Nov 23 · 16:15 · Toulouse vs Angers SCO
Likeliest: Toulouse win · 66%
A 66% home win. The market says 57%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Toulouse66%57%+9
OursMarket
Draw21%26%−5
OursMarket
Angers SCO13%18%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 46% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 43% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 76% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
WinLossDrawDrawDraw
- Nov 9 · at Lorient (A)1-1
- Nov 2 · v Le Havre (H)0-0
- Oct 29 · v Rennes (H)2-2
- Oct 25 · at Monaco (A)0-1
- Oct 19 · v Metz (H)4-0
Angers SCO
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Nov 9 · v Auxerre (H)2-0
- Nov 2 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-1
- Oct 29 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-2
- Oct 26 · v Lorient (H)2-0
- Oct 18 · v Monaco (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.