Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 1 · 16:15 · Toulouse vs Auxerre
Likeliest: Toulouse win · 49%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Toulouse49%54%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Auxerre27%19%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 41% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 44% | +16 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 81% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 74% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Jan 25 · at Brest (A)2-0
- Jan 17 · v Nice (H)5-1
- Jan 10 · at Angers SCO (A)1-1
- Jan 2 · v Lens (H)0-3
- Dec 20 · at Lyon Duchère (A)2-1
Auxerre
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Jan 23 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-1
- Jan 17 · at Lens (A)0-1
- Jan 4 · at Brest (A)0-2
- Dec 21 · v Monaco (H)1-2
- Dec 14 · v LOSC Lille (H)3-4
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.