Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Jan 2 · 19:45 · Toulouse vs Lens
Likeliest: Toulouse win · 45%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Toulouse45%37%+7
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−5
OursMarket
Lens31%33%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 46% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 53% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 63% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 53% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Dec 20 · at Lyon Duchère (A)2-1
- Dec 13 · at Paris (A)3-0
- Dec 6 · v Strasbourg (H)1-0
- Nov 29 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-2
- Nov 23 · v Angers SCO (H)0-1
Lens
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 19 · v Feignies-Aulnoye (H)3-1
- Dec 14 · v Nice (H)2-0
- Dec 6 · at Nantes (A)2-1
- Nov 30 · at Angers SCO (A)2-1
- Nov 22 · v Strasbourg (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.