Ligue 1 (France) · Thu, Sep 3 · 18:45 · Toulouse vs Lille
Likeliest: Lille win · 44%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Toulouse31%27%+4
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Lille44%44%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 46% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 73% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 38% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Aug 29 · at Stade Brestois (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-2
- May 10 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)2-1
- May 3 · at Strasbourg (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v Monaco (H)2-2
Lille
WinDraw
- Aug 28 · v PSG (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Angers (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | — |
| Both teams scored | 70% | — |
| Clean sheets | 10% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.