Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Mar 21 · 16:00 · Toulouse vs Lorient
Likeliest: Toulouse win · 41%
A 35% away win. The market says 20%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Toulouse41%52%−11
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Lorient35%20%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 46% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 80% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 48% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 72% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Mar 15 · at Metz (A)4-3
- Mar 7 · v Olympique Marseille (H)0-1
- Feb 28 · at Rennes (A)0-1
- Feb 21 · v Paris (H)1-1
- Feb 15 · at Le Havre (A)1-2
Lorient
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Mar 14 · v Lens (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Auxerre (H)2-2
- Feb 22 · at Nice (A)3-3
- Feb 15 · v Angers SCO (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.