Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 12 · 15:15 · Toulouse vs LOSC Lille
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 39%
A 35% home win. The market says 29%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Toulouse35%29%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−4
OursMarket
LOSC Lille39%41%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 43% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 71% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 42% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Apr 3 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-3
- Mar 21 · v Lorient (H)1-0
- Mar 15 · at Metz (A)4-3
- Mar 7 · v Olympique Marseille (H)0-1
- Feb 28 · at Rennes (A)0-1
LOSC Lille
LossWinLossWinWin
- Apr 4 · v Lens (H)3-0
- Mar 22 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-1
- Mar 19 · at Aston Villa (A)0-2
- Mar 15 · at Rennes (A)2-1
- Mar 12 · v Aston Villa (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.