Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Mar 7 · 19:45 · Toulouse vs Monaco
Likeliest: Toulouse win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Toulouse40%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Monaco35%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Mar 2 · at Angers SCO (A)4-0
- Feb 23 · at Le Havre (A)4-1
- Feb 15 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-1
- Feb 9 · at Auxerre (A)2-2
- Feb 5 · v Guingamp (H)0-2
Monaco
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Feb 28 · v Reims (H)3-0
- Feb 22 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-2
- Feb 18 · at Benfica (A)3-3
- Feb 15 · v Nantes (H)7-1
- Feb 12 · v Benfica (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-4 | 0-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.