Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Apr 25 · 19:05 · Toulouse vs Monaco
Likeliest: Monaco win · 40%
A 35% home win. The market says 26%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Toulouse35%26%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Monaco40%49%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 51% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 74% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 35% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 21 · at Lens (A)1-4
- Apr 17 · at Lens (A)2-3
- Apr 12 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-4
- Apr 3 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-3
- Mar 21 · v Lorient (H)1-0
Monaco
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Apr 19 · v Auxerre (H)2-2
- Apr 10 · at Paris (A)1-4
- Apr 5 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-1
- Mar 22 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-1
- Mar 14 · v Brest (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.