Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 10 · 19:00 · Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 50%
We make it 66% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Toulouse24%23%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+2
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais50%53%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 54% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 30% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
LossLossLossDrawWin
- May 3 · at Strasbourg (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v Monaco (H)2-2
- Apr 21 · at Lens (A)1-4
- Apr 17 · at Lens (A)2-3
- Apr 12 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-4
Olympique Lyonnais
DrawWinWinWinWin
- May 3 · v Rennes (H)4-2
- Apr 25 · v Auxerre (H)3-2
- Apr 19 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-1
- Apr 12 · v Lorient (H)2-0
- Apr 5 · at Angers SCO (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.