Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Aug 22 · 18:45 · Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: Olympique Lyonnais win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Toulouse37%33%+4
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 45% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
LossLossDrawWinWin
- May 10 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)2-1
- May 3 · at Strasbourg (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v Monaco (H)2-2
- Apr 21 · at Lens (A)1-4
- Apr 17 · at Lens (A)2-3
Olympique Lyonnais
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Aug 18 · at Fenerbahçe (A)1-1
- Aug 11 · v AC Sparta Praha (H)3-0
- Aug 4 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)1-2
- May 17 · v Lens (H)0-4
- May 10 · at Toulouse (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.