Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Mar 7 · 20:05 · Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille
Likeliest: Toulouse win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 31%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Toulouse38%31%+7
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Olympique Marseille38%41%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 52% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 57% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 69% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 43% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Feb 28 · at Rennes (A)0-1
- Feb 21 · v Paris (H)1-1
- Feb 15 · at Le Havre (A)1-2
- Feb 8 · at Angers SCO (A)0-1
- Feb 4 · v Amiens SC (H)1-0
Olympique Marseille
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Mar 1 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)3-2
- Feb 20 · at Brest (A)0-2
- Feb 14 · v Strasbourg (H)2-2
- Feb 8 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-5
- Feb 3 · v Rennes (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.