Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Feb 15 · 20:05 · Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Toulouse30%——
OursMarket
Draw22%——
OursMarket
Paris Saint Germain45%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Feb 9 · at Auxerre (A)2-2
- Feb 5 · v Guingamp (H)0-2
- Feb 2 · v Nice (H)1-1
- Jan 26 · v Montpellier (H)1-2
- Jan 18 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-0
Paris Saint Germain
WinWinWinWinWin
- Feb 11 · at Brest (A)3-0
- Feb 7 · v Monaco (H)4-1
- Feb 4 · at Le Mans (A)2-0
- Feb 1 · at Brest (A)5-2
- Jan 29 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-3 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 6-0-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.