Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Dec 6 · 18:00 · Toulouse vs Strasbourg
Likeliest: Toulouse win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 38%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Toulouse51%38%+13
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Strasbourg25%34%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 50% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 66% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 62% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 53% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Toulouse
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Nov 29 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-2
- Nov 23 · v Angers SCO (H)0-1
- Nov 9 · at Lorient (A)1-1
- Nov 2 · v Le Havre (H)0-0
- Oct 29 · v Rennes (H)2-2
Strasbourg
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Nov 30 · v Brest (H)1-2
- Nov 27 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
- Nov 22 · at Lens (A)0-1
- Nov 9 · v LOSC Lille (H)2-0
- Nov 6 · at Häcken (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Toulouse | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.