Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 · TPS vs Ilves
Likeliest: Ilves win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
TPS35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Ilves38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
TPS
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 12 · at IFK Mariehamn (A)0-1
- Sep 8 · v SJK (H)0-0
- Aug 31 · at IF Gnistan (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Inter Turku (H)0-0
- Aug 14 · at VPS (A)3-1
Ilves
LossLossLossWinWin
- Sep 12 · v FC Lahti (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · v FF Jaro (H)2-0
- Aug 31 · v HJK (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · v VPS (H)0-1
- Aug 17 · at IF Gnistan (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | TPS | Ilves |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.