Super Lig (Turkey) · Mon, Oct 19 · 17:00 · Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş
Likeliest: Beşiktaş win · 44%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Trabzonspor30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Beşiktaş44%42%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 44% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Trabzonspor
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 15 · at KuPS (A)4-2
- Oct 10 · at Samsunspor (A)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Galatasaray (H)4-0
- Sep 12 · at Konyaspor (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Gençlerbirliği (H)5-0
Beşiktaş
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 15 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)3-2
- Oct 11 · v Kocaelispor (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (A)2-3
- Sep 17 · v Olympique de Marseille (H)4-1
- Sep 11 · v Erzurumspor FK (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Trabzonspor | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.