Super Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Sep 19 · 17:00 · Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray
Likeliest: Galatasaray win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Trabzonspor29%31%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Galatasaray45%44%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Trabzonspor
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at Konyaspor (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Gençlerbirliği (H)5-0
- Aug 31 · at Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (A)1-2
- Aug 27 · at Ferencváros TC (A)0-4
- Aug 23 · v Başakşehir FK (H)2-1
Galatasaray
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 13 · v Kocaelispor (H)1-0
- Sep 9 · at Sporting (A)1-3
- Sep 4 · at Başakşehir FK (A)3-2
- Aug 29 · v Göztepe (H)3-2
- Aug 21 · at Erzurumspor FK (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | Trabzonspor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.