Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · Trabzonspor vs Hearts
Likeliest: Trabzonspor win · 70%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 70% for the home win. The market says 67%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Trabzonspor70%67%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Hearts11%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 33% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Trabzonspor
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 19 · v Beşiktaş (H)2-0
- Oct 15 · at KuPS (A)4-2
- Oct 10 · at Samsunspor (A)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Galatasaray (H)4-0
- Sep 12 · at Konyaspor (A)0-1
Hearts
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Celtic (A)1-7
- Oct 15 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · v St. Mirren (H)5-0
- Sep 19 · at Kilmarnock (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · at Falkirk FC (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Trabzonspor | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.