AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Mon, Oct 12 · 16:00 · Tractor FC vs Al Shamal SC
Likeliest: Tractor FC win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tractor FC43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Al Shamal SC29%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tractor FC
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 8 · v Esteghlal FC (H)1-1
- Sep 14 · at Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai (A)0-1
- Sep 10 · at Esteghlal Khuzestan (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Gol Gohar Sirjan (H)1-0
- Sep 1 · at Shams Azar Qazvin (A)0-0
Al Shamal SC
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 8 · v Al Duhail (H)0-4
- Sep 14 · v Al-Ittihad (H)1-1
- Sep 10 · at Al-Wakrah (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · v Al-Shahaniya (H)4-2
- Aug 27 · at Al-Gharafa (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Tractor FC | Al Shamal SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.