League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Tranmere Rovers vs Barnet
Likeliest: Barnet win · 50%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tranmere Rovers22%27%−5
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+3
OursMarket
Barnet50%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 36% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tranmere Rovers
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Rochdale (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · at Chesterfield (A)2-4
- Sep 26 · v Walsall (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Shrewsbury Town (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Exeter City (A)0-0
Barnet
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at Bristol Rovers (A)3-1
- Oct 6 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Fleetwood Town (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Accrington Stanley (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Chesterfield (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Tranmere Rovers | Barnet |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.