Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:45 · Treaty United FC vs Cobh Ramblers FC
Likeliest: Cobh Ramblers FC win · 42%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Treaty United FC29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Cobh Ramblers FC42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Treaty United FC
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 9 · at Athlone Town (A)2-1
- Oct 2 · v University College Dublin (H)0-4
- Sep 25 · v Finn Harps (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Bray Wanderers (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Longford Town (A)2-0
Cobh Ramblers FC
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 9 · v Kerry FC (H)0-2
- Oct 2 · at Bray Wanderers (A)4-1
- Sep 25 · v Athlone Town (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Wexford FC (A)1-3
- Sep 11 · at Cork City (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Treaty United FC | Cobh Ramblers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-4 | 3-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.