Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 25 · 18:45 · Treaty United FC vs Finn Harps
Likeliest: Treaty United FC win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Treaty United FC54%53%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−1
OursMarket
Finn Harps23%23%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Treaty United FC
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 18 · at Bray Wanderers (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Longford Town (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v Wexford FC (H)0-1
- Aug 28 · at Kerry FC (A)1-3
- Aug 21 · v Cork City (H)2-2
Finn Harps
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 18 · v Longford Town (H)0-1
- Sep 11 · at Wexford FC (A)3-1
- Sep 4 · v Athlone Town (H)0-1
- Aug 28 · at University College Dublin (A)4-5
- Aug 21 · v Cobh Ramblers FC (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Treaty United FC | Finn Harps |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 1-0-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 1-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.