Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 2 · 18:45 · Treaty United FC vs University College Dublin
Likeliest: University College Dublin win · 44%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Treaty United FC30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
University College Dublin44%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Treaty United FC
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 25 · v Finn Harps (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Bray Wanderers (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Longford Town (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v Wexford FC (H)0-1
- Aug 28 · at Kerry FC (A)1-3
University College Dublin
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Sep 25 · v Bray Wanderers (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Cork City (A)1-5
- Sep 11 · v Athlone Town (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · at Cobh Ramblers FC (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Finn Harps (H)5-4
| Last 10 games | Treaty United FC | University College Dublin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-3 | 1-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.