CONCACAF Nations League · Sun, Oct 4 · 22:00 · Trinidad and Tobago vs Curaçao
Likeliest: Curaçao win · 67%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 67% for the away win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Trinidad and Tobago11%12%−1
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Curaçao67%69%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 33% | 31% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 15% | 15% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 2.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Trinidad and Tobago
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 1 · at Curaçao (A)0-1
- Sep 28 · v Dominican Republic (H)1-2
- Sep 25 · at Haiti (A)2-3
- Jun 9 · at Russia (A)0-3
- May 31 · at Korea Republic (A)0-5
Curaçao
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Oct 1 · v Trinidad and Tobago (H)1-0
- Sep 28 · v Nicaragua (H)6-1
- Sep 25 · at Costa Rica (A)4-3
- Jun 25 · v Côte d'Ivoire (H)0-2
- Jun 21 · at Ecuador (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Trinidad and Tobago | Curaçao |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-0-10 | 3-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 3.3 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 29% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.