CONCACAF Nations League · Mon, Sep 28 · 01:00 · Trinidad and Tobago vs Dominican Republic
Likeliest: Dominican Republic win · 71%
A tight one: we make it 71% for the away win. The market says 33%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Trinidad and Tobago12%42%−30
OursMarket
Draw17%26%−9
OursMarket
Dominican Republic71%33%+38
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 29% | 67% | −38 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 58% | +30 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 74% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 14% | 56% | −42 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 2.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Trinidad and Tobago
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 25 · at Haiti (A)2-3
- Jun 9 · at Russia (A)0-3
- May 31 · at Korea Republic (A)0-5
- May 31 · at South Korea (A)0-5
- Mar 27 · at Venezuela (A)1-4
Dominican Republic
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 25 · v Nicaragua (H)3-2
- Jun 4 · at Panama (A)2-4
- Mar 29 · v Cuba (H)1-1
- Mar 27 · v El Salvador (H)2-2
- Nov 13 · v St. Vincent and the Grenadines (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Trinidad and Tobago | Dominican Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-1-9 | 3-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.