Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Tristán Suárez vs Patronato
Likeliest: Tristán Suárez win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tristán Suárez50%51%−1
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Patronato18%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 30% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 37% | 34% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tristán Suárez
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at Colegiales (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Quilmes Atlético Club (H)0-0
- Sep 27 · at Ferrocarril Midland (A)1-0
- Sep 21 · v Atlanta (H)0-0
- Sep 16 · at San Martín de San Juan (A)0-0
Patronato
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Güemes (H)2-0
- Oct 4 · at Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors (A)0-1
- Sep 27 · v San Martín de San Juan (H)3-0
- Sep 21 · at Nueva Chicago (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Temperley (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Tristán Suárez | Patronato |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-0 | 0-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.