Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 20 · 17:00 · Tromsø IL vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Tromsø IL win · 40%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tromsø IL40%19%+21
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion36%57%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 55% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 53% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 43% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 81% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 25% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tromsø IL
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 16 · at Molde FK (A)2-3
- Aug 13 · v CFR 1907 Cluj (H)2-1
- Aug 6 · at CFR 1907 Cluj (A)5-0
- Aug 2 · at Aalesunds FK (A)6-2
- Jul 30 · at FC Hradec Králové (A)1-3
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinLossWinLossLoss
- May 24 · v Manchester United (H)0-3
- May 17 · at Leeds United (A)0-1
- May 9 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- May 2 · at Newcastle United (A)1-3
- Apr 21 · v Chelsea (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Tromsø IL | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.