Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Sep 20 · 15:00 · Tromsø IL vs HamKam
Likeliest: Tromsø IL win · 64%
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tromsø IL64%63%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
HamKam15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 37% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tromsø IL
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 16 · at Alta IF (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Rosenborg BK (A)3-5
- Sep 6 · at Kristiansund BK (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v Sarpsborg 08 (H)0-0
- Aug 27 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-4
HamKam
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 16 · at Kjelsås (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Molde FK (H)1-5
- Sep 5 · at Rosenborg BK (A)0-4
- Aug 30 · v Kristiansund BK (H)2-2
- Aug 16 · at SK Brann (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Tromsø IL | HamKam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.