Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 17:15 · Tromsø IL vs KFUM Oslo
Likeliest: Tromsø IL win · 62%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tromsø IL62%60%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
KFUM Oslo16%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tromsø IL
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 11 · at Fredrikstad FK (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v HamKam (H)3-2
- Sep 16 · at Alta IF (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Rosenborg BK (A)3-5
- Sep 6 · at Kristiansund BK (A)0-2
KFUM Oslo
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 12 · v Vålerenga IF (H)2-1
- Sep 30 · at Hønefoss BK (A)2-0
- Sep 18 · at Sarpsborg 08 (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Aalesunds FK (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Molde FK (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Tromsø IL | KFUM Oslo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-1 | 3-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.