Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Apr 18 · 12:00 · Troyes vs Boulogne
Likeliest: Troyes win · 56%
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Troyes56%63%−7
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Boulogne23%15%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 85% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 37% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 81% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Troyes
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Apr 13 · at Rodez (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · at Montpellier (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Dunkerque (H)5-1
- Mar 16 · at Annecy (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · v Clermont (H)2-1
Boulogne
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Apr 11 · v Le Mans (H)0-0
- Apr 4 · at Reims (A)0-0
- Mar 20 · v Nancy (H)0-0
- Mar 13 · at Bastia (A)1-0
- Mar 6 · v Amiens SC (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Troyes | Boulogne |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.