Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Mar 21 · 13:00 · Troyes vs Dunkerque
Likeliest: Troyes win · 40%
We make it 69% for both teams to score. The market says 55%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Troyes40%59%−19
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Dunkerque37%16%+20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 53% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 55% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 84% | −20 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 41% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 78% | −26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Troyes
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Mar 16 · at Annecy (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · v Clermont (H)2-1
- Mar 2 · at Amiens SC (A)2-0
- Feb 21 · v Pau (H)4-3
- Feb 16 · at Bastia (A)0-0
Dunkerque
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Mar 14 · at Red Star (A)0-1
- Mar 9 · v Reims (H)1-1
- Feb 27 · at Clermont (A)1-2
- Feb 20 · v Bastia (H)1-1
- Feb 13 · at Amiens SC (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Troyes | Dunkerque |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.